Investor Lawrence Lepard says the current crypto bear market is creating one of the strongest long-term buying opportunities in years. While fear around Bitcoin and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to dominate the market, he argues the selloff looks similar to previous cycle bottoms, when investors had already capitulated before prices recovered sharply.
Why Analyst Is Buying “Strategy”
Lepard revealed that he recently increased his position in Strategy, calling the recent selloff an overreaction.
According to him:
- Strategy remains a leveraged play on Bitcoin, making it more volatile than holding BTC directly.
- The company’s balance sheet is much stronger than critics claim.
- Its first major debt maturity is still several years away.
- Preferred shares do not require immediate redemption.
- Management still has multiple options available, including adjusting preferred dividends if required.
He also rejected claims that Michael Saylor is taking excessive risks, saying the company’s leverage remains well managed.
Bitcoin Could Reach $180K
Meanwhile, the long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. His model projects:
- Bitcoin could rise from around $60,000 to $180,000 within two years.
- That would represent roughly a 3x return for Bitcoin.
- Strategy shares could deliver 4x to 6x gains because they provide leveraged exposure to Bitcoin.
He added that Strategy’s future still depends largely on Bitcoin continuing its long-term upward trend.
Lepard argues Bitcoin is trading near the lower end of its historical valuation range. He pointed to the Bitcoin Power Law model, which currently values Bitcoin around $134,000. With Bitcoin trading near $58,000-$60,000, he views current prices as a deep discount.
Although he doesn’t rule out another short-term pullback, he expects a new bull market to emerge over the next one to two years.
Strategy’s Capital Plan Makes Sense
Moving on he also supported Strategy’s recent decision to give itself flexibility to sell Bitcoin and repurchase undervalued company shares if necessary. Mostly because:
- The move helps protect shareholders against aggressive short-selling.
- It strengthens the company’s capital structure.
- Strategy’s financing costs remain well below Bitcoin’s historical long-term returns, allowing shareholders to benefit as long as Bitcoin continues appreciating faster than the company’s cost of capital.
Inflation Still Supports Bitcoin
Beyond crypto, Lepard argued governments are more concerned about preventing a financial collapse than controlling inflation. He expects policymakers to keep printing money, expanding government debt, and supporting the economy instead of allowing widespread bankruptcies or banking failures.
While this may delay a recession, he warned it also weakens fiat currencies and keeps Bitcoin’s long-term investment case intact.
Long-Term View
Lepard concluded that investors should prepare for volatility rather than fear it. Instead of panicking during 50% drawdowns, he recommends building positions that can be comfortably held through market cycles. With institutional adoption continuing to grow and Bitcoin’s fixed supply unchanged, he sees today’s weakness as another opportunity similar to previous bear-market bottoms.
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